: NW Ontario ice out predictions??

03-10-2010, 10:27 AM
I know it's early yet, and I know that anything weather related is very unpredictable - especially after last spring/summer!! - but I'm wondering if any of our friends from NW Ontario have predictions on which week ice out will occur, given the depth of the snow pack, thickness of the ice, etc.? Also, given current snow and ice, any guesses as to what water levels will be on May 15 in the Vermilion Bay to Ear Falls area?

Enid Elizabeth
03-10-2010, 12:16 PM
Well as of March 10, there is lots of ice and so little snow. It is raining in Red Lake. This morning on the radio, MNR is talking a busy fire season because of so little snow. If this keeps up, ice out will be early.
BUT>>>>>> from experience I know that ice depends on what happens from here....I'll try to keep you up to date. I write a blog (http://viking-island.blogspot.com/) and at this time of year I'm thinking fishing and ice out...so I'll post pictures from Red Lake.

Golden Eagle
03-10-2010, 12:32 PM
There's plenty of time to make more ice. I'll be there May 13.

03-10-2010, 01:31 PM
We have fished opening week for many years, first at Eagle and more recently Gullrock. After a couple of close calls with the ice in the last 2-3 years we finally moved our date to the second week of the season. That's probably enough to get the ice out early this year. :)

03-10-2010, 01:34 PM
At this rate ice out will be early... especially compared to the last couple seasons. But, I still don't think winter is over yet.

Like elizabeth said, lots of ice and little snow. Feels like spring here this week in Sioux Lookout.

03-10-2010, 01:42 PM
Do you do the blog for Viking Island Lodge?

03-10-2010, 06:18 PM
I was just out on Lower Manitou Lake today and there is about 3" of slushy snow and standing water everywhere, some places its 2" of water some 7-8". I saw 2 small holes in the ice where water was running down, in a day or two they will be 2-3' in diameter. I am guessing the lake will pop in 4-5 days and it will be great ice fishing with ATV's for another 2 weeks, but then the shorelines will start to break away and we will be done.
I know it's early, but at this rate I am guessing April 22-25 range.

03-10-2010, 07:13 PM
I will echo what the others have said. I went out on the lake this afternoon with the 4-wheeler, instead of the snow machine, because of all the water on the ice. There was probably 4 inches of water around our ice shack. We had talked about going to Upper Manitou trout fishing tomorrow, but until the water gets off the ice, it is just not worth it. On our home lake (shallower lake), we are about maxed out on the ice auger, but the trout lakes probably have 6 inches less ice. Unusually warm weather, it sure looks like it could be an early ice out, but who knows.

Connie, I heard it got to 70 down at the farm today, you planting potatoes in TN yet?

Golden Eagle
03-10-2010, 07:28 PM
Did my first planting Monday. Also spread 34-0-0 on my lawn, along with grub killer.

Sap is starting to run. In everything except the Golden Eagle.

03-11-2010, 07:36 AM
I have seen this type of winter before. My prediction is for near the end of April this year, earlier in area's to the south. Ice fishing yesterday north of Sioux Lookout showed some of the creeks opening up and flowing. The weight of the rain water, and melting snow was draining through a few holes in the ice. Still, there is plenty of thick ice to go. It is softer cutting than before, so if this trend of weather continues I will be staying off the ice sooner than walleye close in April.
I don't think we'll be fishing during walleye spawn this year.

03-11-2010, 07:56 AM
I've been watching ice around Red Lake for a while and I agree with Enid - it all depends on what happens from here out.

The first big milestone is the snow, when it is gone that seems to start the clock ticking. After that warm weather and sunshine seem to be the biggies, attacking the ice from the bottom up with sunshine and top down with warm weather.

Enid - do you know what the ice thickness is now on Howey Bay?

03-11-2010, 06:45 PM
April 1st (April fools joke) Who knows with the crazy weather we are getting. 61 in il and wi yesterday.I will go with MAY 2 i hope its later.

03-13-2010, 06:47 PM
Last year was May 8th. Average date is April 29th. I'll go with the average this year.

Enid Elizabeth
03-14-2010, 10:29 PM
Today, Lorne Marks, was fishing in front of his house on Howey Bay. In February, he measured 34 inches....today only 25 inches.
I was walking in a jackpine bush near to town and there was no snow in the bush!!
Crazy for March.
We are going to be surprised when we get a big dump of snow this spring but, BOY, do we need it!! Or else,:eek: this will be the forest fire season of this century!!

03-15-2010, 05:27 AM
I was at the uni dome sports show sun and talked to a resort on Lac Seul and he said they have had very little snow and they are pumping alot of water through the dam! He seemed to think that the lake, baring a major rain or snow event, would be way down this year, like in 06. I hope not, that was the year I hit a rock and took out the lower unit!! We were way down by Rocky point, if you know where that is. How we ever got back home is beyond me.

Davis Viehbeck
03-15-2010, 02:34 PM
It was 18 Celsius yesterday (Sunday, March 14th) and 14 C today in Thunder Bay. There is virtually no snow on any of the lakes and little to no snow in the bush. Temps are forecasted for well above zero all this week. Hopefully the warm weather sticks around and the fish can get a spawn in while the season is closed.


Red Lake Angler
03-16-2010, 06:01 PM
We will all be fishing in our boats, if we choose, befor season closes April 15th.
And we will not get anymore snow this year, may get a little rain snow mix, but that's about it.
So come on up the second week of April for a little pre-spawn fishin. Trust me!

Golden Eagle
03-16-2010, 07:58 PM
Red Lake Angler, I know where I'd like to be, but I'd have to walk a mile or so to get there. Might walk to the other side on the backs of walleyes. Big walleyes.

03-24-2010, 03:12 PM
I just returned from central Wisconsin. No Ice at Madison. 50% ice at the Dells, 80% and going fast as of Tuesday March 23rd around Black River Falls. Red Lake, Ontario got cold again but still way ahead of last year.

03-28-2010, 08:29 AM
It's gonna be early guys! Rainy River has been open all the way to the lake for a while now. Ice is thin and slushy...

Lots of people are talking April 14 from what I've heard.

03-29-2010, 09:09 AM
Another quad through the ice north of Thunder Bay. These conditions are completely unnatural and put the fear of god into me. I will not go out on the ice as I usually do this time of the year. Another warm week coming up. I'll bet April 14th as well for a lot of the lakes around here.

It's gonna be early guys! Rainy River has been open all the way to the lake for a while now. Ice is thin and slushy...

Lots of people are talking April 14 from what I've heard.

03-29-2010, 05:31 PM
I think the same question was asked last year but I don't remember seeing a response, has anyone been keeping track of the "ice out date" for a particular lake over the years or know where this data is?

I'm curious for SE lac seul, but I suspect any lake in the area will exrapolate. Just wondering if I can figure out if there is any correlation to ice out and how good the year is!

03-30-2010, 07:20 AM
The cool weather late last week slowed melting down. The ice is still good but getting thinner, on our lake (Dryden area), though it has lifted, is ridging in places and starting to melt by the shore. I saw on the CKDR website yesterday, that a snowmachine went through the ice and the rider was lost, near Sioux Lookout (Lac Seul, I assume). We are still flying the ski plane on the ice, but this week may be the end of it. Should be no problem with ice on opener this year.

03-30-2010, 09:30 AM

I was out at camp this weekend, still 30 inches of good ice.
took some time to fish.
My 7 yr old son Hayden caught a 46 inch pike
he has caught a lot 40 plus but this is hi biggest pike ever through the ice.
caught some walleye to eat of course.

still no way to be sure what date for ice out.
I will offer an educated guess of APRIL!!!! 25th give or take 3 days.
That is a good 2-3 weeks ahead of the average.
of course it all depends on the weather.

Oh while I'm bragging about my kids. Hayden won the big trophy at his hockey wind up and Seanna won the big trophy for most artistic and dedicated for figure skating.

03-31-2010, 06:14 PM
Ice is going quick. Though it is 18 inches in some places, by our house last night it was 12 1/2. Took the plane off the ice today and by the shore near the ramp, there was a little open water. A friend said he was on a trout lake today and the ice was only 7 inches. It is to the point, you have to pick your lakes to go on. Going to a semi-remote lake fishing tomorrow and am walking in, rather than taking the 4-wheeler.

Blue Lk
04-01-2010, 11:34 AM
I took these shots this AM,the ice in front of my house is getting darker everyday & starting to move awy from the shoreline.
If the weather stays warm,I'm guessing a week to 10 days for ice out.
Very early 4 sure.This shud make for excellent fishing opening day.



04-01-2010, 11:43 AM
I just talked to my neighbours father in law who is visiting from north of Winnipeg and he told me the red river in his town is a good 3 weeks ahead of normal break up.

I was on the ice at gullrock 2 days ago and we had 30 inches.

04-03-2010, 06:34 AM
I'm headed to Perrault Falls area last week of May. What are the likely affects of an early ice out around this time? After fishing in the cold and rain the last couple of years, It would be nice to be dry and have warmer than normal temps. Just don't want the fishing to suffer.

04-03-2010, 07:17 AM
Early ice out should indicate early spawn.

This year, the last week in may will probably be similar in fishing as the 2nd week in June (last year)

04-16-2010, 03:00 PM
Here is a link to Minnesota's Official Ice Out Report: April 13th for LOTW


04-16-2010, 04:26 PM
South Bay on Gullrock is ice free today, sure is nice to see some waves.

Fishing Traveler
04-16-2010, 10:58 PM
Just heard from the camp that I will be going to this summer in Jellicoe that ice is off of many of their lakes.

Fishing Traveler

05-07-2010, 10:32 AM
Can anyone tell me how the fishing has been recently on Lower Manitou? Plan on being up there in about two weeks.

05-07-2010, 12:20 PM
Can anyone tell me how the fishing has been recently on Lower Manitou? Plan on being up there in about two weeks.

Heard the Lake Trout are getting pretty shallow and biting well. The water temps from last week were 42-49. I'll be there also in two weeks. We should hit the smallmouth spawn pretty close if it continues to warm. Where are you staying?